Early this morning, the two Christian-democratic parties (CDU and CSU) and the social-democratic SPD reached a final coalition deal. Details of the deal will only be presented later today. Up to now, the only settlements known are a deal on a minimum wage of 8.50 (with some exemptions), a reduction of the retirement age to […]
German Growth ‘Normalisation’… Whatever That Might Look Like
Back to normal. After a strong second quarter, the German economy has returned to its potential growth rate in the third quarter. According to the first estimate of the German statistical office, the economy grew by 0.3% QoQ, from 0.7% QoQ in 2Q. On the year, German GDP is up by 1.1%, from 0.9% in […]
The ECB Preview, Going In Circles
Last week’s data has given rise to renewed speculation about further ECB action. Headline inflation below 1% and unemployment above 12% have fueled market speculation that the ECB could cut rates at this week’s meeting. In our view, this speculation is premature for two main reasons: (1) the ECB simply does not have a reputation […]
Keep A Spy On The Economy – German Ifo Drops, But Outlook ‘Stable’
Shocked by the slowdown? Germany’s most prominent leading indicator, the Ifo index, dropped in October to107.4 from 107.7. While the current assessment component fell 103.6, from 104.2, expectations remained almost stable. The German economy remains in good shape. The solid labour market and recovering industrial activity bode well for stable growth in the coming quarters. […]
