Inflationary pressure in Germany remains low. Based on the results of several regional states, German headline inflation increased to 1.4% YoY in December, from 1.3% in November. On the month, German prices increased by 0.4% MoM. Based on the harmonised European definition (HICP), headline inflation decreased to 1.2%, from 1.6% in November. On the month, […]
German Growth ‘Normalisation’… Whatever That Might Look Like
Back to normal. After a strong second quarter, the German economy has returned to its potential growth rate in the third quarter. According to the first estimate of the German statistical office, the economy grew by 0.3% QoQ, from 0.7% QoQ in 2Q. On the year, German GDP is up by 1.1%, from 0.9% in […]
The ECB Preview, Going In Circles
Last week’s data has given rise to renewed speculation about further ECB action. Headline inflation below 1% and unemployment above 12% have fueled market speculation that the ECB could cut rates at this week’s meeting. In our view, this speculation is premature for two main reasons: (1) the ECB simply does not have a reputation […]